Food for thought.....

[TylerDurden]

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/aug/14/food-production-shocks-will-happen-more-often-extreme-weather

[cherimoya_kid]

This ignores the reality of improving technology moving food production to hydroponics and vat-grown meat.

[TylerDurden]

This ignores the reality of improving technology moving food production to hydroponics and vat-grown meat.

That will be restricted, at best, to very rich nations, and then mostly only to the wealthy,  not to the countries  which are overpopulating right now. Also, a laboratory simply cannot reproduce the exact same sort of nutrients found in high-quality meats. Things like physical exercise which differentiate the meat of healthier animals from more intensively-farmed/factory-raised animals cannot be replicated for obvious reasons.

Then again, I can grow raw sprouts in water, so you may have a point.....

[cherimoya_kid]

The increasing exponential rate of technological change will bring new technologies to developing countries many times faster than in the past. Sure, there's going to be a window of time between now and then, but probably 20 years at most, and perhaps as little as 10-12 years.

[TylerDurden]

The increasing exponential rate of technological change will bring new technologies to developing countries many times faster than in the past. Sure, there's going to be a window of time between now and then, but probably 20 years at most, and perhaps as little as 10-12 years.

Hhmm, you are clearly a fan of the Singularity, aka "The Rapture of the Nerds".  I am more convinced by Huebner who pointed out how technological advancement has slowed considerably at a constantly dropping rate. Even Bruce Sterling, one of the 3 main SF authors who promoted the "Technological Singularity" in his writings,  has stated that it was all a highly unrealistic futurian concept, and that it was far more likely that we would have a future dominated by, say, Islam, instead. I note how many current technologies have been promoted as being just around the corner ever since the 1980s or before, such as the advent of  sentient artificial intelligence, landings on Mars,  or nuclear fusion reactors etc. These technologies are always stated as being about to happen "in 20-30 years time" at any particular point, but never  actually do.

[cherimoya_kid]

Moore's Law has been going on for at least 65 years or so. It shows no signs of stopping or even significantly slowing, due to new advances with graphene, stanene, Weyl computing, etc..

[TylerDurden]

Moore's Law has been going on for at least 65 years or so. It shows no signs of stopping or even significantly slowing, due to new advances with graphene, stanene, Weyl computing, etc..

People are predicting the end of Moore's law and have already shown evidence that it has been slowing down:-

http://www.wired.com/2014/06/supercomputer_race/

http://www.pcworld.com/article/2032913/the-end-of-moores-law-is-on-the-horizon-says-amd.html

Also, artificial intelligence has nothing to do with Moore's Law, really. I mean one can have a googolplex number of connections but that does not make an AI sentient in and of itself.

The way I see it, unless you believe in UFOs or von daenikenesque-type ancient astronaut claims, my viewpoint has an edge to it. The Great Filter Theory states that since no other alien species has developed interstellar travel, that therefore all sentient species ultimately become extinct either at their own hand or by Mother Nature, before they are ever able to try interstellar travel, always assuming that interstellar travel is indeed possible at all. Some scientists have made a point, that the worst thing would be to discover, via telescope, that life existed on other planets as that would prove the Great Filter Theory, somewhat. If intelligent life on other planets was discovered via telescope/remote sensing then that would prove that the Great Filter Theory was correct.

When you think about it, there are already numerous possibilities arising right now which could easily lead to mankind's extinction within   200 years, let alone possibilities in the future.