Author Topic: Western World Circa 2020?  (Read 10689 times)

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Offline SkinnyDevil

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Western World Circa 2020?
« on: January 07, 2011, 02:11:16 am »
Ten years from now, what will be the cultural, political, psychological landscape of the western world?

I pose this question due to conversations elsewhere. some political in nature, some cultural in nature, some, well, "other" (hahaha!). One individual (interested in what he described as an "anarchist revolution") asserted there will be radical cultural shifts by a variety of means (primarily educating the public on specific political philosophies - an idea I find somewhat unlikely).

But what say YOU?

What sort of world will we be living in? An Orwellian "1984"-esque nightmare (or it's opposite: Huxley's "Brave New World" nightmare)? Or some neo-60s Hippie Utopia? Somewhere in between?

What do YOU see?
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Offline TylerDurden

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #1 on: January 07, 2011, 02:22:34 am »
Well, I see our current world as already being partly a hell inspired by Gorge Orwell's "1984" - sadly, Communism is alive and well, despite claims - and a potential future dystopic hell being likely very  similiar to E M Forster's story "The Machine Stops". My view of a wonderful future  Utopia would be something like Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World" or Bruce Sterling's cyberpunk era in "Schismatrix".

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Offline CHK91

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #2 on: January 07, 2011, 02:31:14 am »
I really hope I will be wrong, but

I see a future of increasing government control. The corporate elites will use the increasing power of government as a tool to impose their will on the people. The general public will gladly stay blissfully ignorant of what is wrong with the world and prefer to be distracted with mindless entertainment. A Brave New World nightmare is what I fear.
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Offline turkish

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #3 on: January 07, 2011, 02:34:21 am »
CHK91,
 from what i see currently, unfortunately you maybe right.

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #4 on: January 07, 2011, 02:50:24 am »
Evil is not as obvious in the world as it used to be. Now, because of the rapid spread of information, evil is usually carried out more discretely with misinformation campaigns to keep the public docile. Government can give us "everything" in order to appear "good", while it steals our freedoms right from under us as we turn our heads the other way due to excessive trust.
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Offline ys

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #5 on: January 07, 2011, 02:57:54 am »
it'll be similar change we had from 2000 to 2010, and similar to from 1990 to 2000.
10 years usually do not bring much noticeable change.

Offline yon yonson

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #6 on: January 07, 2011, 03:51:12 am »
My view of a wonderful future  Utopia would be something like Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World"

interesting... i loved that book but how the hell would that be a desirable future?

Offline Iguana

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #7 on: January 07, 2011, 03:52:01 am »
it'll be similar change we had from 2000 to 2010, and similar to from 1990 to 2000.
10 years usually do not bring much noticeable change.

Hmmm, sometimes it does. The decade 1935 - 1945 saw some noticeable changes, for example. The future is unpredictable but... check The Oil Drum.
Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

Offline Nation

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #8 on: January 07, 2011, 04:10:05 am »

Offline ys

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2011, 04:17:27 am »
Quote
Hmmm, sometimes it does. The decade 1935 - 1945 saw some noticeable changes, for example. The future is unpredictable but... check The Oil Drum.

it is surely possible to see something similar like that happen again, we are not insured against it.  but looking back i'd say chances of that are pretty low.  we probably will not see tanks on tanks battles anymore.  imagine thousands of abrams against thousands of T72(84,90,etc).  hopefully it's just a game.

as far as Oil thing, it is constantly fluctuating up and down, so i don't see any news there. it peaked $150 not long ago only to drop to $30, it is back around $90 now.

Offline Iguana

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #10 on: January 07, 2011, 04:51:44 am »
The barrel dropped after being at $150 (but not to $30 AFAIK) because the economy crushed and therefore oil consumption dropped. We are having a big problem to fulfill the energy needs of a growing world population and economy. As soon as the global economy will temporary recover, the barrel will flare again, generating a new crash. 
Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

Offline TylerDurden

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #11 on: January 07, 2011, 04:54:38 am »
interesting... i loved that book but how the hell would that be a desirable future?
Well, there is the aspect of free love, and virtually everyone is happy, albeit drugged, plus they have a fixed position in society, no pressure to succeed, plus they are all psychologically motivated to love their jobs and be especially good at them.Come to think of it, even the ones dissatisfied with society are deposited on their own nature-reserve(an island?). There are some absurdities, such as the claim by Huxley that a society of alpha-class humans could not possibly work, and why would one need  beta-, gamma-,delta-class or epsilon-class people in a futuristic society where, inevitably, any drudge-work in factories would be done by machines, either sentient or nonsentient?

But, overall, I am far more motivated by the understood notion in the book that science/technology could transform society into a wonderful futuristic utopia, one in which humanity might not even exist any more in its current form. For example, in Bruce Sterling's "Schismatrix" stories, humanity is split into 2 groups, more or less:- "Shapers" and "Mechanists". "Mechanists" go in for wireheading, and interface with AI components to become powerful cyborgs(some no longer have organic bodies at all, and have downloaded their personalities into AI consciousnesses) - the "Shapers" are eugenic-/genetically-engineered "supermen" with vast IQs/photographic memories etc., able to bioengineer things like chlorophyll-like substances into their descendants' skin in order to absorb and use the energy of sunlight or add infra-red vision etc.
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Offline turkish

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2011, 05:29:52 am »
Based on what i see around me. Science/Technology function like the religion of 21st century.

Like the religions of past i dont expect much from it.

Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #13 on: January 07, 2011, 08:15:54 am »
The US money system is in turmoil so "they" will need to create more wars to continuously stimulate the economy.

Afghanistan and Iraq and Pakistan... more will be in the list of continuous wars.

If we are lucky, wars don't extend to our own countries.

Hopefully, we have a chance for a better money system that will bring on peace instead of wars.

I like Gerald Celente's prescription... a new golden age of technology upgrades.

Say free energy machines or energy saving inventions.

Currently keppe motors can replace conventional motors with 90% savings for example.
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Offline sabertooth

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #14 on: January 07, 2011, 09:46:24 am »
Well, I see our current world as already being partly a hell inspired by Gorge Orwell's "1984" - sadly, Communism is alive and well, despite claims - and a potential future dystopic hell being likely very  similiar to E M Forster's story "The Machine Stops". My view of a wonderful future  Utopia would be something like Aldous Huxley's "Brave New World" or Bruce Sterling's cyberpunk era in "Schismatrix".

"Hug me till you drug me, honey,
Kiss me till I'm in a coma,
Hug me honey, snuggly bunny!
Love's as good as Soma!"

Poem from that wonderful book "Brave New World".

I was awakened by some of what Aldous Huxley had written, I was 14 when I read Brave New world and was amazed at how in 1930 this man could have envisioned the things he had. In my teens I read most of his essays and novels, and I believe he was visionary in many respects, although he was nearly blind physically.

I urge anyone who wants to see a truly inspiring vision of utopia should read his novel "Island" Its by far the best utopia work of fiction I have read, It seems so possible and attainable and sustainable, and yet in the end the Island is besieged by oil hungry despots. Even he knew that no paradise can last.

He predicted
Universal drugging of the population. They don't have soma yet, but I am sure its still being worked on.

He explained how the language would be dumbed down and through rigorous conditioning the people would learn to love their servitude.

He forsaw how culture could be synthetically created and force fed to the public. This is happening , every time I here the latest techno trance whore music, it makes me think of that poem posted by Tyler. There are hit factories,  that establish certain trends in the new music that is being fed to the young. Its not just junkfood for the masses, there are actual messages being put in and being pavlovianly hammered into the brains of our young.

There must be others who see that the new synthetic pop music is scientifically designed to make the youth shallow and ignorant. The subliminal messages are everywhere.

He predicted

 Genetic engineering and mass culling of the population through chemical means.

 Birth control

The Establishment of World government

The lacing of our food with hormones(sex hormone chewing gum).

I also read Orwell and believe that both George and Aldous were insiders of the Fabian conspiracy and they knew, Damn well what was being set up by the Money Men. The future is never written in stone, but I believe that the same society's of social planers are as strong and intact as ever. Aldous said it would be 600 years before a society like the Brave new world could arise, and then 30 years later he revised his estimates based on the explosion of progress that had happened in his own lifetime. It could happen much sooner.


I even named my Son Aldous, in the spirit of his curiosity and  lifetime dedication to learning. (90 percent of people have no Idea who Aldous Huxley was and so have no clue about the origin of my sons name). Many of his predictions have come to pass. Most people of this generation will never learn to read such high brow literature and will never be able to understand what these people were trying to teach us.  
« Last Edit: January 07, 2011, 10:36:00 am by sabertooth »
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Offline Iguana

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #15 on: January 07, 2011, 03:28:32 pm »
Say free energy machines or energy saving inventions.
Currently keppe motors can replace conventional motors with 90% savings for example.

I don’t think so, Edwin. If it were true, the automotive industry would adopt it ASAP since it is actually trying hard to find every possible way to save energy… and to survive. 
Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #16 on: January 07, 2011, 04:14:35 pm »
I don’t think so, Edwin. If it were true, the automotive industry would adopt it ASAP since it is actually trying hard to find every possible way to save energy… and to survive. 


http://www.keppemotor.com

Check it out.  They are trying to commercialize their technology by partnering with potential mass scale manufacturers.  These Keppe Motors are electrical motors.
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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #17 on: January 07, 2011, 05:15:21 pm »
They refer to a test report of a table fan by VTT - Technical Research Centre of Finland. I had a look at it and as far as I understand it seems there’s nothing extraordinary about that: the speed of the fan increases as more electrical power is fed to the motor.

Then I went to look at the VTT website, introduced Keppe into the search engine and it showed « no results » :
http://www.vtt.fi/vtt_search.jsp

Everything on the Keppe website is very weird. For example, the performance table of their motors http://keppemotor.com/technicaldata.php  starts with a column called “Rated power – Nennleistung (CV)” showing curious numbers such as 1/10. Then their motors efficiency is showed at around 60%, with extremes of 47% and 78%: very bad efficiency numbers for electric motors.

The units employed such as CV, kgf x cm, N x m are awfully written. We don’t use such abbreviations,  CV notation is ridiculous: W or kW are in use and “CV” is an utterly obsolete notation derived from the French “Cheval Vapeur”. It’s been discarded since about a century and was replaced by “ch” for “hp” before the SI units were used.

Their other pages speak about things like "The New Physics Derived From A Disinverted Metaphysics"
I still have to learn what a disinverted metaphysic is ;) .
Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

Offline turkish

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #18 on: January 07, 2011, 11:12:07 pm »
Sabetooth,
 Based on what you wrote on Aldous Huxley, i am really curious. I guess i will try to read some of his books. Do you have any suggested list of his books and in what order i should be reading them.

-Thanks

Offline achillezzz

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #19 on: January 07, 2011, 11:23:23 pm »
Sabetooth,
 Based on what you wrote on Aldous Huxley, i am really curious. I guess i will try to read some of his books. Do you have any suggested list of his books and in what order i should be reading them.

-Thanks

+1

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #20 on: January 07, 2011, 11:23:41 pm »
Wow...lotsa pessimism here (hahaha!!!).

Two things I'd like to address from above posts:

1) Won't be much change.

I completely disagree. The rate of technological change alone has already radically impacted western culture.From biotech in the medical & agricultural industries to how we view theft (re: copyright & IP law). Radical religious philosophies since 9-11 have already radically changed the way most of the world thinks about safety, security, and sovereignty of nations. Things will only ramp up from here.

2) The US needs war to stimulate the economy.

Not true. War has NEVER stimulated the economy. Ever. It's a line that is thrown around a lot, but it isn't so and never has been the way the real world works. What does happen is gov borrows and prints more money, increasing debt and inflation, which gives the illusion of a stimulated economy.

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #21 on: January 07, 2011, 11:26:49 pm »
Oh...here was my response to the original assertion that kicked this whole thing off (remembering he used the term "revolution" and viewed TV as the worst invention ever. The final line is in response to the Huxley/Orwell views):

Interesting choice of words. Don't know that such a shift would ever happen quickly enough to be seen as a revolution, but.....

I don't watch much TV, but I hardly see it as the Evil Thing in society, and don't think that eradication of a given form of mass communication will necessarily take consumer culture, traditional power structures, & political corruption with it. I also don't think high-brow discussion & education about specific anarchist philosophies (from collectivist to individualist) is going to do any serious damage to the underlying human assumptions that give rise to authority at all levels of all cultures.

What I think a "21st Century Revolution" will look like is the increasing irrelevance of government first (due to the increased empowerment of the individual), followed by a decay in the standard corporate structure. Of course, this takes no crystal ball for me or anyone else - we're already seeing this and have been for a decades. But with the combination of the pace of technology and the organic/primitivist leanings of western culture, I tend to think we'll reach a tipping point - an angle of repose - where things start rapidly sliding the other way.....away from a desire for government & traditional authority structures to solve human problems (from the pragmatic observation of government's increasing incompetence) and a decrease in trust of Big Biz as the obvious alternative.

In short, the myth of government vs free market when seeking solutions to problems....mostly because politicos typically mean "Big Gov vs Big Biz" when having these discussion, so we blindly accept their framing of the issue. No more. These assumptions are already crumbling.

What we'll see on the other side I don't know, but (barring religious wars) doubt it will include the typical trappings of sci-fi dystopia or post-apocalyptica.


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Offline sabertooth

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #22 on: January 08, 2011, 08:37:55 am »
Sabetooth,
 Based on what you wrote on Aldous Huxley, i am really curious. I guess i will try to read some of his books. Do you have any suggested list of his books and in what order i should be reading them.

-Thanks

I started out by reading brave new world, and then started reading his books of collected essays.
I think it was the book Island that is what really inspired me the most, it was his last novel and he used his lifetime of observation and study to form an Ideal society. He introduced the novel with a Quote by Aristotle In Framing An Ideal We May Assume What We Wish, But Should Avoid Impossibilities. It summed up the spirit in which he wrote the book. Everything he describes in that book seems possible and attainable.
I also believe reading his early essays first gave me a greater insight and made me more to be able to understand his other books. If you read brave new world and Island I think that would be the best start, although essays like "Ends and Means" are also very thought provoking.

Side note; I aways pondered about what form his Idea of the savage reservation would take in reality. He wrote in brave new world how the Alphas of his society would take vacations in the future North America which was referred to as a savage reservation. Perhaps the Fabians were truly not interested in total world control and could allow for such a place where the people could live as they always have in the brave new world. People are allowed to live free of the world government as long as they don't interferer. I sure wish my progeny can be put on such a reservation and live in such a manor. That's the best I can hope for

Oh...here was my response to the original assertion that kicked this whole thing off (remembering he used the term "revolution" and viewed TV as the worst invention ever. The final line is in response to the Huxley/Orwell views):

Interesting choice of words. Don't know that such a shift would ever happen quickly enough to be seen as a revolution, but.....


In short, the myth of government vs free market when seeking solutions to problems....mostly because politicos typically mean "Big Gov vs Big Biz" when having these discussion, so we blindly accept their framing of the issue. No more. These assumptions are already crumbling.

What we'll see on the other side I don't know, but (barring religious wars) doubt it will include the typical trappings of sci-fi dystopia or post-apocalyptica.




I agree with you, that there will be no huge apocalyptic shift in the state of affairs within the next generation. That is why I can bring children into this world with confidence that they will not be doomed. I have studied the Fabians enough to know that they seek to alter society slowly and in clandestine fashion ( the revolution will not be televised and will happen so slowly no one will witness it). Huxley originally estimated six hundred years before the rise of the Brave new world.

Although I admit No one could have never envisioned the power of the internet to simultaneously enlighten millions of the lowerclass and create this global awakening, so we may still have a better chance at maintaining a free world, but its up to us to go out and make it happen.
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Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #23 on: January 08, 2011, 08:38:16 am »
Wow...lotsa pessimism here (hahaha!!!).

2) The US needs war to stimulate the economy.

Not true. War has NEVER stimulated the economy. Ever. It's a line that is thrown around a lot, but it isn't so and never has been the way the real world works. What does happen is gov borrows and prints more money, increasing debt and inflation, which gives the illusion of a stimulated economy.



I do hope you are right about this.  Maybe the "empire" can stop all the wars and bring their boys, girls and now "gays" home.
You think the "empire" will be able to stop their war addiction by 2020?
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Offline SkinnyDevil

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Re: Western World Circa 2020?
« Reply #24 on: January 08, 2011, 09:07:18 am »
I do hope you are right about this.  Maybe the "empire" can stop all the wars and bring their boys, girls and now "gays" home.
You think the "empire" will be able to stop their war addiction by 2020?

Oh, it's plenty true that war doesn't really stimulate the economy, but.....the problem is A) that people believe it does (making them easier to roll), and B) that government stopped realizing the difference between artificially stimulating the economy thru war, debt, & inflation and actually stimulating the economy by removing artificial barriers (a list too long to run, but includes reducing or eliminating taxes, fees, etc., as well as over-regulation in the market) LONG ago.

So no, I don't think the US gov will break it's addiction to war at all. I believe it will be broken FOR them by pressures internal (individual Americans no longer viewing their actions as moral) and external (hard to bomb someone you owe your ass to)....and then the federal gov will continue their slow sink into irrelevance.

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