Ron Paul for President of the USA

[ys]

If Romney wins the nomination, it will ensure Obama's victory.

Romney can win easily if price of gas stays around 4.50 a gallon by fall.

Ron Paul has the best chance of defeating Obama.

Highly unlikely.  He has not won anything besides his little congressional district of mostly white people.  If he was a governor or at least a senator then he would have higher chance.  Congressmen don't win presidential elections these days.  That's the reality.

It's still too early in the primary.  Like SD said after Super Tuesday it'll be very clear.

[SkinnyDevil]

He could have said:
 'I plan to decrease funding to these bloated programs.'
 'I plan to reduce financial support to these countries.'
  and similar, using gradual and steady approach.

That, however, would be dishonest. His honesty for 30 years is exactly why he has such an ardent base.

Instead he is wielding an axe and not many people are liking that.

You are mistaken. slightly better than 1 of 5 people in Iowa liked it, and 1 in 4 liked it in New Hampshire.

I think his support from here out will only grow. If he clears his message up as I mentioned above (pound on about no federal income tax, bringing troops home, power to people & states, ending the welfare state [individual & corporate], and ending the war on drugs...keeping it SIMPLE instead of "educational"), I think he's going to be gaining ground fast. By Super Tuesday, he'll be polling closer to 30%.

I think Perry may be set for a comeback. If Gingrich slips any further (I think he will) and if people realize Santorum is both a BIG spender and that his religious zealotry won't play well with moderates in a general election (I think they will), those who dislike both Romney & Paul will have to choose between Huntsman & Perry. That spells Perry comeback (which I find somewhat unfortunate. I like Huntsman).

I won't be surprised to see Gingrich or Santorum drop next if Perry pushes his numbers up in SC and especially FL (they like Perry in FL).

[raw-al]

SD,
You are an astute observer.

Some excellent comments from everybody. I like when someone shoots down someone's theory because of course everything is just theory.

I have to admit that the whole US political system is a bit baffling to me. Super Tuesday is a good example. I Googled it but Wiki just made it more confusing.

Does anyone have a good link for "The US Political system with explanations on how elections occur right from close to ground level." Not a textbook as reading that will not happen, but a Youtube or something, cause um just a simple guy with a simple song...Simple Song: Lyle Lovett, John Hiatt and Joe Ely

[ys]

You are mistaken. slightly better than 1 of 5 people in Iowa liked it, and 1 in 4 liked it in New Hampshire.

20% in Iowa and 25% in NH out of mostly Republicans.  Those are not good numbers.  If you take all voters those numbers will be in single digits.

I think Perry may be set for a comeback.  I won't be surprised to see Gingrich or Santorum drop next if Perry pushes his numbers up in SC and especially FL (they like Perry in FL).

I'm curious where you get your info.  I looked at several polls and Perry is getting 2-5% in both SC and Florida.

[SkinnyDevil]

Raw-al: Unfortunately, the game is always changing, so there is no simple explanation (hahaha!). Super Tuesday, however, is the first Tuesday in March when a bunch of states hold primaries. This year, it's March 6, which sees primaries/caucuses by 10 states. Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Mass, ND, OH, OK, Tennessee, Vermont, & Virginia.

YS:  Actually, those ARE good numbers. Fabulous numbers this early on. Also worth noting that NH is a semi-closed primary (meaning it isn't just republicans, but also includes those not registered as dem or rep).

With regard to SC & FL - the polls say one thing NOW, but remember those folks LOVED him early on (and FL especially due to his connection to Bush). If Santorum & Gingrich lose ground before the polls open, those votes will be split between Huntsman, Paul, & Perry. This sets the stage for a Perry return...if he plays his cards right.

Remember, the hard-right won;t vote for Paul or Romney or Huntsman. They have to go somewhere, and without Gingrich or Santorum, there is only one other choice.

[SkinnyDevil]

http://www.businessinsider.com/young-voters-ron-paul-2012-1

HALF, baby!

[raw-al]

I guess some of us are: online chat-board trolls in tin-foil hats? 

[ys]

HALF, baby!

you are overly enthusiastic   just don't be surprised if Paul is not going anywhere with those HALF numbers.  But if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit.

Again, you don't see the whole picture.  Half is the number of under 30 who voted which is a very small fraction of all voters in NH.  Considering that NH is mostly democratic that HALF becomes a single digit if you count all voters in NH.

[PaleoPhil]

The grumpy prophet (aren't they all) Frank Zappa on America's Move Towards a Fascist Theocracy
Frank Zappa America's Moving Towards a Fascist TheocracyIf only Ron Paul could defeat the Theocrats.

[TylerDurden]

I admit I don't know the US very well, but it does seem a bit strange if there is a religious revival in the US. I mean, in many countries, religious belief is dropping pretty quickly. Here in the UK, for example, religion   is dead, with nowhere near enough Catholic priests, many Church of England Churches being sold off due to no local congregation being sizeable enough etc. The various Churches do compensate by going in for mass conversions of people in the 3rd world, but there's a limit to what they can do.

[raw-al]

Same here in Canada and particularly in Quebec which used to be the bastion of RCism and the bastion of profligate procreation. It now has a paucity of procreation with the government even giving tax breaks to procure procreation.

You can get churches and monasteries for a song. Lots of them are converted into everything from condos to law offices.

[svrn]

you are overly enthusiastic   just don't be surprised if Paul is not going anywhere with those HALF numbers.  But if I'm wrong I'll be the first to admit.

Again, you don't see the whole picture.  Half is the number of under 30 who voted which is a very small fraction of all voters in NH.  Considering that NH is mostly democratic that HALF becomes a single digit if you count all voters in NH.

The way I see it Ron Paul cant "not go anywhere" at this point. I remember supporting and campaigning for him back in 08 and the difference between this election and that election is like night and day. The way things stand right now, whether or not he gets the nomination, I believe hes already won due to how much he has been able to spread the message of liberty this time to the point that he cant be ignored anymore and all the smears they try to put on him backfire because people with half a brain can now see through it.

I think the momentum for patriots this campaign has created is great victory for freedom minded people in and of itself. I never expected Ron Paul to be in the position he is now and I feel as though im dreaming sometimes. We should all be thankful for him getting this far.

[PaleoPhil]

The way things stand right now, whether or not he gets the nomination, I believe hes already won due to how much he has been able to spread the message of liberty this time to the point that he cant be ignored anymore and all the smears they try to put on him backfire because people with half a brain can now see through it.

I think the momentum for patriots this campaign has created is great victory for freedom minded people in and of itself. I never expected Ron Paul to be in the position he is now and I feel as though im dreaming sometimes. We should all be thankful for him getting this far.

Yes, America as a whole has won, thanks to Ron Paul.

[raw-al]

Hocum I have only seen one female poster on this thread?

Is that because women don't enjoy politics or is because of the candidate or ....... ?

[goodsamaritan]

Expect the unexpected: The Assassination of Ron Paul

and

Bush/Cheney strategist "We Could Never Influence (Buy) Ron Paul"

[Aaaaaa]

Hocum I have only seen one female poster on this thread?

Is that because women don't enjoy politics or is because of the candidate or ....... ?

I am a big fan of Ron Paul!  And I know for sure that one other woman that I work with is as well.  So there's two of us for sure haha!!
I'm not sure why the % of people that support him are mostly men...?  Could just be lack of interest in politics (that used to be me) or like someone else mentioned, counting on depending on the government eventually.

[SkinnyDevil]

you are overly enthusiastic

I don;t think so. He pulled in almost 25% of the vote to place 2nd in NH.

His polling was at 10% in SC, placing him at 5th. Numbers released TODAY now have him surging....Romney at 29%, Gingrich at 25%, Paul in 3rd at 20%....ALL others at sub-10%. Santorum is history. Perry's only hope is Florida.

If word gets out now that Gingrich's film is BS (it mostly is), he will lose not only his transient numbers, but a large part of his base (as he should - the movie he produced striking Romney is blatant mis-information).

Unless Perry makes a comeback, you're potentially looking at a Romney vs Paul race.

[raw-al]

I am a big fan of Ron Paul!  And I know for sure that one other woman that I work with is as well.  So there's two of us for sure haha!!
I'm not sure why the % of people that support him are mostly men...?  Could just be lack of interest in politics (that used to be me) or like someone else mentioned, counting on depending on the government eventually.

I showed my GF his youtubes etc and she has read two of his books and is now a rabid supporter of Paul's also.

Funnily enough, if women in general knew about Paul's anti-war, (men's largest weakness) pro-family bias, and and clear unvarnished honesty, they would flock to him in totally off the chart numbers. He would need security guards, just like the Beatles or Elvis. It would be called "Paulmania".

The media is doing a great job of keeping him off the charts because they're truly scared. What if he shows us as wrong?? We like being sleazy and passing out money to Israel.

Women in general, I suspect, are not as interested in politics, and they tend to like Democrats because they always seem to be tirelessly working for women's this and that, the poor, etc. It's easy to just make a blanket decision on politics rather than digging for facts. This is not a condemnation of women, just a possible explanation of why women typically vote Democratic (in the US).

[raw-al]

Here is a commentary from a rare bird: A Canadian who has heard of an American politician:

http://www.thestar.com/news/article/1115775--ron-paul-2012-witnessing-the-rise-of-a-guru-to-the-downwardly-mobile?bn=1

[ys]

Breaking news:  Huntsman Says He’s Quitting G.O.P. Race, will endorse Romney.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/15/huntsman-says-hes-quitting-g-o-p-race/?ref=politics

Game over?

[SkinnyDevil]

Breaking news:  Huntsman Says He’s Quitting G.O.P. Race, will endorse Romney.
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/15/huntsman-says-hes-quitting-g-o-p-race/?ref=politics

Game over?

Just heard this. Stunned that he'd endorse Romney.

Game over? Hardly. He was polling LOW in SC.  I suspect his core supporters (a mix of libertarians & moderates) will be split between Romney & Paul.

I'm still awaiting the Perry comeback.

[TylerDurden]

Just curious, SD, is one of the reasons why you are so keen on Ron Paul because he would benefit your particular vocation directly, not just in a general economic sense?

*On a side-note, I consider it somewhat embarassing that we in the UK have no Libertarian equivalent. I mean, our anti-war movement mostly consists of "Looney Left" pro-Communist types mixed with radical, rightwing Muslim Fundamentalists. The Conservatives stupidly no longer believe in Milton Friedman's libertarian ideas, and so on and on....*

[ys]

Game over? Hardly. He was polling LOW in SC.  I suspect his core supporters (a mix of libertarians & moderates) will be split between Romney & Paul.

My understanding is it is over.  Notice how both Romney and Paul are not very critical of each other compared to the rest of non-Romneys.  As if Romney and Paul had a secret arrangement of Romney getting 1st place and Paul getting 2nd.  Which is exactly what both wants according to some experts.

Romney wants the nomination.  And he will probably get it.

And Paul's goal is to get 2nd place (or as many delegates) so he can have some floor time during the convention.  He himself admitted that the odds of him landing presidency is one in a million (or something like that, don't remember exact words).
He'll be happy to make his name popular for his son who has a lot more chances later on because:
- He is already a Senator
- His views are much more moderate than his father's

So to me it looks like it is all been settled.

[SkinnyDevil]

Just curious, SD, is one of the reasons why you are so keen on Ron Paul because he would benefit your particular vocation directly, not just in a general economic sense?

How would Ron Paul benefit my vocation? I play guitar for a living. Far as I know, RP doesn't have any plans to subsidize self-employed musicians (hahaha!).

No, I support RP because he is the most libertarian-leaning candidate. I don't see eye-to-eye with RP on everything (I'm so libertarian that I piss off libertarians), but he has worked tirelessly for his entire life in the cause of liberty. That gets not only my respect, but my vote.

YS said:

As if Romney and Paul had a secret arrangement ...So to me it looks like it is all been settled....

Bah-humbug.

There is no doubting that RP is a politician. He is no angel and he is not perfect. That said, I don;t swallow the idea of a secret arrangement. Paul has always been about education, but he is also about changing the republican party and changing America. The best way to spread ideas, as he has often said, "is to win elections".

[ys]

The best way to spread ideas, as he has often said, "is to win elections".

Yes, that's true.  But the thing is Paul has never won anything besides his congressional district.  So he'll be pretty happy to have some floor time at the convention.  I predict he will drop out as soon as he has enough delegates to guarantee him floor time.

Update:
As I was typing I found this one.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/16/us/politics/ron-pauls-campaign-plots-path-focused-on-delegate-math.html?_r=1&partner=rss&emc=rss&pagewanted=all

Ron Paul says he has by no means given up on winning the Republican presidential nomination, but he acknowledges that he might not make it.  “The odds are right now that Romney, he pulls it off,” Mr. Paul, a Texas congressman, said in an interview here.