Author Topic: how do you guys feel about global future?  (Read 10691 times)

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Offline Raw Kyle

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how do you guys feel about global future?
« on: May 24, 2008, 01:56:17 pm »
I'm beginning to question everything. For instance things like global warming and oil supplies. Sure maybe that stuff is true and we should face it and change what's going on. But I'm also open to the possibility that these "crises" are being created by the people in charge to give others something to worry about. To me the two party system in America is just two sides of the same camp fighting over nothing, and since one side tends to push certain issues against the resistance of the other, you couldn't top fake crises.

I just finished a biology bachelors and now I'm beginning to question some very fundamental and basic concepts of science and scientific discovery. You go through these processes to become "an expert" in something, you watch the other "experts" and see what they know or don't know and how they act, and eventually you're supposed to become like them and perpetuate the system. It's not attractive to me at all, not in the least bit. I've seen and heard my own biology professors say some stupid things, and sometimes not know basic information because it's not in their "area of expertise."

What better system could they invent then a system that is so fractionalized that even basic information is the domain only of the experts of that particular section? Now the professionals don't even have the ability to come together in common terms and decide if what's going on makes any sense at all. It's like if you worked for someone who worked for someone and on and on until it goes to the mob, and what you're doing is allowing mobsters to kill people or something. You'll never know, and neither will the guy that you work for, or his boss, until you get really close to the actual mob. And even if you do know or have a suspicion, it's not your "responsibility" or "area of expertise" to know the details about that.

I wouldn't call myself a communist anymore, but Marx's ideas of alienation explain a lot of what I'm getting at here. You can create a system where people are working in factories to create worthless stuff that they go and buy from their wages in the factories. How many people do you know say things like "oh I can't afford that" for important stuff in their lives while constantly spending money (ie wasting money) on the stupidest little stuff imaginable?

What does all this mean for people on earth? Does the homogenization of world culture bother you? Any favorite conspiracy theories of yours?

Offline TylerDurden

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2008, 05:16:20 pm »
Your comments sound a bit like anarcho-primitivism to me:-
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anarcho-primitivism

"During the last campaign I knew what was happening. You know, they mocked me for my foreign policy and they laughed at my monetary policy. No more. No more.
" Ron Paul.

Offline Raw Kyle

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2008, 05:16:10 am »
A bit. I'm not sold on abandoning technology. Simple tools are technology, our ability to communicate right now is based on technology etc.

When in a non-mob mentality and not being constantly misled and lied to people can be very intelligent, patient and honorable. I think globally we could make good technology choices if those kinds of prerequisites were met.

But specialization does suck. I see it as a tool of the masters to make sure the slaves don't communicate enough or realize how easily they could get by without the masters stealing their stuff and lying to them all the time.

Satya

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2008, 09:36:48 am »
I'm beginning to question everything. For instance things like global warming and oil supplies. Sure maybe that stuff is true and we should face it and change what's going on. But I'm also open to the possibility that these "crises" are being created by the people in charge to give others something to worry about. To me the two party system in America is just two sides of the same camp fighting over nothing, and since one side tends to push certain issues against the resistance of the other, you couldn't top fake crises.

It is really important to question assumptions.  Remember the ozone hole, and the CFCs that were causing the problems (maybe you are not old enough?)?  Well, how do such heavy molecules get into the upper atmosphere in the first place?  Truly, the mark of a great scientist is asking the tough questions.

Global warming is a gray zone of uncertainty.  Peak oil is reality, though.  No doubt about it: the end of oil is coming.  The dinosaurs are long gone and we probably reached the peak of world oil production a couple years ago.  That's why output is not increasing even though demand and price are high.  If the Saudi's increase production, they may damage their fields and lose what's left.  That's why the production is in decline and has been since 2005.  There are finite resources on this planet and our exponential population growth doesn't help matters.

The good news is that high energy costs will drive people (no pun intended) to seek out conservation measures, local foods, local communities and such.  We will still have our global web communities as computers can be powered cheaply.  But the end of globalization, is that such a bad thing?  The bad news is that most of the world's population depends on petroleum-based agriculture presently, and no matter how much positive spin is placed on biofuels, the fact is that they are a negative energy gain in most cases.  IOW, it takes more energy to produce them then you get in yield.  No fuel on the planet matches petrol's energy yield, except maybe nuclear.  So unless we greatly change our transportation system, especially in the oil gluttonous US, we are possibly in deep doo doo.  But hey, it will prove once and for all that a sheep raised on my grass and slaughtered by me is cheaper for me and the planet than vegan food raised by petrol, shipped by petrol, processed with energy and cooked with energy - no matter how "ethical" it is. 

So if the decline in oil has a minor slope downward with demand falling as prices go too high, then we are going to weather it okay.  Maybe.  The jet age is almost over for most mortals, though, probably in just a matter of years.  Nuclear power will become the next big push, as it is the only energy dense choice.  But nuclear planes are a pipe dream (and a nightmare!).

I just finished a biology bachelors and now I'm beginning to question some very fundamental and basic concepts of science and scientific discovery. You go through these processes to become "an expert" in something, you watch the other "experts" and see what they know or don't know and how they act, and eventually you're supposed to become like them and perpetuate the system. It's not attractive to me at all, not in the least bit. I've seen and heard my own biology professors say some stupid things, and sometimes not know basic information because it's not in their "area of expertise."

Yes, this is especially true in biology.  Life is a complex web of so many variables.  Physics is much harder to fake with spin and opinion, especially since there aren't big pharmaceutical companies out there trying to skew the laws of physics to sucker someone into buying their high-tech snake oil.  There just isn't the market for spacecraft and telescopes as there is for "treatments" for disease.  Make them sick with unnatural foods so that you have a market for your "cure."



« Last Edit: May 26, 2008, 09:41:49 am by Satya »

Offline Raw Kyle

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2008, 02:50:36 am »
There are even questions about peak oil. For instance I just read an article about a scientist whose hypothesis it was that oil was not created from buried animals but from hydrocarbons from the earth's crust. I think he just died and was famous for other ideas that were scoffed at in the beginning and then accepted, I'll have to ask the person who sent me the link for his name again.

And biofuels, I am under the assumption that you can just use enzymes to produce the fuel at little energy cost, but that's not how it's done now because that's not what would be good for the people in charge. Like you take a plant and use the sugar as energy to grow bacteria whose enzymes change the cellulose into alcohol which can be burned for energy.

Offline Raw Kyle

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« Last Edit: May 28, 2008, 12:18:43 pm by Craig »

xylothrill

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2008, 12:23:16 pm »
All you need to do is post the direct link to Youtube, Google videos, and many others and the forum software will embed it for you. I should explain that somewhere, shouldn't I?

Example:
Code: [Select]
http://www.youtube.com/v/wb_JAgI7yto&hl=en

Now, I'm off to watch it.

Craig

Offline Raw Kyle

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2008, 01:25:48 pm »
Thanks, I tried to use the embed code.

Offline TheWayCreatesTheWarrior

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #8 on: June 01, 2008, 07:20:51 pm »
http://www.youtube.com/v/wb_JAgI7yto&hl=en

all part of the plan: absolute, total, volutary enslavement. baby steps works best with humans.
There can be no mercy in the heart, of the heart, of the Wolf.

Satya

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #9 on: June 07, 2008, 01:26:35 am »
There are even questions about peak oil. For instance I just read an article about a scientist whose hypothesis it was that oil was not created from buried animals but from hydrocarbons from the earth's crust. I think he just died and was famous for other ideas that were scoffed at in the beginning and then accepted, I'll have to ask the person who sent me the link for his name again.

One question: If oil is abiotic (ie. it comes from inorganic material in the Earth), then why do oil fields get depleted?  I mean, if it is renewable, why is it that we don't find fields replenishing themselves instead of always going into irreversible decline?  I tend not to focus on the words coming out of someone's mouth; show me the evidence.  It is true a few scientists, noteably from Russia, have kept the abiotic view, but the evidence is overwhelmingly in the biotic camp from what I have seen.  Besides, even if there are great pools of abiotic oil way down deep somewhere, they are commercially unviable, and will have little effect on the reality we now face of the largest oil field being half gone, with the second half being more expensive to pump out, and not as sweet and light as the crude to which we are accustomed. 

http://www.rense.com/general58/biot.htm

Offline Raw Kyle

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #10 on: June 07, 2008, 04:23:03 am »
I don't think oil reserves being used up and abiotic oil are mutually exclusive ideas. It could simply be that the creation of the abiotic oil is slower than the current human use.

Or a more sinister idea is that there is plenty of oil and it's being kept out of the market to artificially drive up prices and control society. Kind of like what DeBeers does with diamonds, except oil is infinitely more important to societal function.

Offline Justin

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Offline yon yonson

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2010, 07:05:42 am »
even the US department of energy now admits peak oil will happen within a year and a half:

http://www.countercurrents.org/arguimbau230410.htm


it's about fucking time.

Offline Raw Kyle

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #13 on: April 27, 2010, 08:42:15 am »
The most interesting thing about the term "peak oil" is anyone I've ever heard use it irl hasn't been able to define it. It's funny because I know what it means but most of the kids talking about it just jumped onto the fad. It does have a nice ring to it.

William

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #14 on: April 28, 2010, 09:29:23 am »
even the US department of energy now admits peak oil will happen within a year and a half:

Isn't that the same bunch that keeps trying to scare us with anthrax, global warming, swine flu, new ice age, 2012, planet X, terrorists etc.?

BTW have you ever seen a terrorist? I haven't, nor anyone I know. And nobody seems terrified.
If they exist, they must be the most incompetent bunglers ever.

There is another oil story, just as good authority, to the effect that discovered and proven reserves are enough for centuries at the current level of use.

Offline cherimoya_kid

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #15 on: April 28, 2010, 11:13:04 am »


BTW have you ever seen a terrorist?



I think the people that Nadal Hasan attacked saw a terrorist.

Canadians are lucky, nobody commits terrorist attacks on you guys.  I, on the other hand, have to be ready to beat the ever-loving-heck out of anybody who starts acting suspicious in a public place.  LOL

Offline yon yonson

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #16 on: April 28, 2010, 11:46:42 am »
There is another oil story, just as good authority, to the effect that discovered and proven reserves are enough for centuries at the current level of use.

im confused, do you see that as a positive?

im mainly just excited that we will be using less oil, regardless of the motives...

Offline whatever

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #17 on: April 28, 2010, 04:05:48 pm »
There is another oil story, just as good authority, to the effect that discovered and proven reserves are enough for centuries at the current level of use.

True, but "easy-to-get" oil is running out, tar sands in alberta and somewhere in the usa are huge but very expensive to refine.

I think we hit peak oil some where in 2007/8. the maximum production of oil was reached in that period (price was very high so selling crude == $$ ) and the output of the giant oilfields is declining.

More and more countries are converting from oil-exporters to importers (UK with there north sea fields)

They find new large oil fields but they are tiny in comparison to Ghawar.

Interesting times ahead 8).

William

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #18 on: April 28, 2010, 11:02:20 pm »
How anyone  feels about global future depends first that you believe in the globe story of the shape of the planet earth.
Then a person must choose to believe (or not) in the various scare stories peddled by the media.

Believing is easy, testing for truth is difficult, but the reward is that we don't have to feel like fools so often.

Offline kurite

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #19 on: April 29, 2010, 05:39:49 am »
A few videos to consider-
Justin did the first video show a generator that produces more energy than it takes to run without any energy source except the initital starting energy?
"A government big enough to give you everything you want is a government big enough to take from you everything you have."

Offline Sitting Coyote

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #20 on: May 02, 2010, 08:28:21 pm »
Hi Kyle,

I definitely share your concerns regarding the institution of science.  In general, I think it has become just as much of a religion as Christianity or Islam these days.  Very sad.  The scientific method (create a hypothesis, design an experiment, carry out the experiment, present results, etc.) is a myth outside of a very small number of people who do highly controlled experiments on non-living materials.  Even though I'm currently pursuing a PhD in Natural Resources and use "science" all the time, I have no choice but to carry a lot of skepticism around with me, which creates a lot of tension with my dissertation committee who aren't used to having their monopoly on knowledge challenged.

As for the abiotic oil theory, the man you're referring to is Thomas Gold.  It's been demonstrated that his theories are correct regarding abiotic methane (the main constituent of natural gas), but the rate of generation is miniscule relative to our rate of use.  He's hypothesized that oil is generated abiotically through the same process, but this has never been demonstrated.  At the temperatures and pressures around the mantle, any complex hydrocarbons would almost immediately degrade to methane.  Even in Russia and the Ukraine, abiotic oil theorists represent a minority, although they are very vocal so it's easy to get the impression they are greater in number than they actually are.  I have seen no evidence to suggest that Russia or Ukraine are producing abiotic hydrocarbons, so one has to wonder if the abiotic oil theory is the result of a few academic chemists successfully isolating themselves in Russian and Ukraine ivory towers where they can't be held accountable for theories that don't hold water (or oil).

And I agree with others that Peak Oil is a real issue.  My own calculations suggest we're about due.  I'm writing up a paper that i'll submit to the journal Science in the next month or so that says as much.  It's part of my dissertation.


William

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #21 on: May 03, 2010, 01:45:06 am »
And I agree with others that Peak Oil is a real issue.  My own calculations suggest we're about due.  I'm writing up a paper that i'll submit to the journal Science in the next month or so that says as much.  It's part of my dissertation.



If oil companies and government are secretive about their findings as to oil deposits (where, how much, etc.), then how can anyone fairly estimate peak oil?

I spent some time in the oil survey business, so I know that they (oil companies) are secretive.

Offline Sitting Coyote

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #22 on: May 03, 2010, 09:35:16 am »
Oil companies are indeed secretive, but some of us have connections and can get data. 

More importantly, though, the United States Geological Survey does global petroleum assessments using data gathered from many oil companies, and the resulting models and resource estimates are public information.  My research is based largely on these.  Since oil is a matter of national security, the USGS is well funded with regards to its petroleum assessment research, so I feel like their global resource estimates are the best available.  They also went province-by-province globally, so in addition to being publicly available their petroleum assessments by far the most thorough ever done. 

The USGS estimates that global technically recoverable "conventional" crude oil amounts to about 3 trillion barrels.  When I use this number with an empirical depletion indicator I developed based on the United States oil depletion profile, I end up forecasting that the global oil supply should have peaked sometime between 2000-2004.  Allow a little leeway for technical advances, and we're about due.  The last statistical maximum for crude oil was in July 2008, and global production's slipped a bit since then, so perhaps 2008 was the peak?  Of course, we really won't know for certain for another 30 years or so when we can look back.  Hindsight is always 20/20.

Offline alpha78

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #23 on: June 04, 2010, 10:35:21 pm »
The monetary system goes down big time and some good things will happen :-) know some will say im nuts crazy etc but today humans preferes prey as MONEY and money as we know it will be gone! i think how unnatural  is it to have a loan to a bank og 1000000 rabbits !!! think about it! this is a big stressor humans will become humans again after the big crash

Alpha

Offline Iguana

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Re: how do you guys feel about global future?
« Reply #24 on: September 02, 2011, 05:27:06 am »
Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

 

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