Author Topic: TED talk on population growth  (Read 27204 times)

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Offline Dr. D

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Offline cherimoya_kid

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #1 on: September 08, 2013, 12:21:11 am »
GoodSamaritan, you might want to watch this.

Offline van

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2013, 01:19:17 am »
GoodSamaritan, you might want to watch this.
  I was thinking the same thing

Offline Iguana

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #3 on: September 08, 2013, 03:41:44 am »
A relevant comment, below the video:

Quote
John Taves

Aug 7 2013: These projections are irrelevant. They are very sophisticated projections of the past to the future. Which is to say that they are extremely sophisticated nonsense.

These projections do not consider the fact that we do not know how to keep 7 billion humans alive at one time without consuming fossil fuels. Fossil fuels will become scarce. Any projection that goes for more than a few years must pay lip service to this concept, but none of these projections do anything of the sort.
Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

Offline Aura

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #4 on: September 08, 2013, 03:51:50 am »
I just finished watching this video and...

According to him wider access to education, mobile phones and  bycicles will stop population growth in the poor countries elevating them to a new developing status where technology/family planning/medicines/future and present tech foods (GMOs)  will be the key-roles in decreasing population growth.

I (sadly) agree with him.

Basically he is taking the sickest possible example of the western world societies today (which he himself call the "wealthiest and healthiest") to lead the rest of humanity, pushing the poor  to "develop" and get sick (or sicker) than what they are now.
On his diagram he only measures mortality but does not consider the disease rate which it is the most important thing to observe because probably most of the western children taken out of medication would not survive one next generation..

And this plan will not only decrease population but IMO cause it to extinct humanity as a whole. And while it is doing that, will make the rich (the old western, as he calls it) even richer.
IMO he is not providing a healthy way to address the problem. He is just reducing numbers without calculating the exponential risks. His concepts reminds me of Hitler with the difference that this would pass as a legalized way to kill and live - experiment without even asking for consent.

My conclusion is that a world society based on medicine, technology and man made foods is going to see its end sooner than we think and therefore as long as we do that, there is not even need to worry about the year 2050 or more..

A society based upon death and destruction will inevitably guide its end into the void.






Offline Iguana

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #5 on: September 08, 2013, 05:41:20 am »
Sharp analysis!
Just one remark:
Quote
And this plan will not only decrease population but IMO cause it to extinct humanity as a whole.

Wouldn't it be more realistic to say that, with or without this plan (or any other plan  ;)), humanity is at high risk of extinction, with a decrease of population which can in no way be gentle and gradual, but only catastrophically and dramatically brutal?   

Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

Offline Aura

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #6 on: September 08, 2013, 06:16:10 am »
Wouldn't it be more realistic to say that, with or without this plan (or any other plan  ;)), humanity is at high risk of extinction, with a decrease of population which can in no way be gentle and gradual, but only catastrophically and dramatically brutal?
By "this plan" I meant the technoindustrial one in general, not just his..
I do not know if there are feasible alternative plans for humanity.

I followed some other TEDtalks about similar topics and they were all pointing to technology, processed food and calling "poor people" the few humans with some freedom left on this world.

And they call them : Ideas worth spreading..

Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #7 on: September 08, 2013, 12:01:07 pm »
I grew up in the social class with cars, air travel and contraception (family planning)... the soon to be extinct class of people... as most of them are in the medical paradigm and choose to be extinct via sacrificing their prime reproductive ages to "college" and "further" education.

I rather view population projections as something that motivates me and my descendants to SURVIVE the on going extinction apocalypse now happening with my own friends and relatives.  I saw those projections way back in 1995.

As I explained to my 10 year old boy while he was interviewing me for his home work... my life story and dream was to always be a grand father to a big cohort of descendants / grandchildren and great grand children... why attending grand reunions was always a happy thing... why I should have my own biological family tree succeed and be bountiful given the conditions today.

Why just as my father in law and my mother in law grew up in the same class conditions but exercised their FREEDOM TO CHOOSE to procreate a plenty when after a PHD in Stanford Law my in-laws already had 1 child born in the USA and were given the invitation to be US citizens... my father in law's host family taught them birth control / contraception / family planning... but both my in-laws CHOSE their dream to have MORE CHILDREN as the USA conditions they were in made it difficult to raise more than 1 child (no extended family, no nannies)... so they turned down USA citizenship and went back to MANILA and eventually created 8 children... because they CHOSE TO. (my father in law is an atheist)

Although statistics are nice... some of us are still able to CHOOSE FREELY and will doggedly pursue our own personal dreams... and will ADJUST to the present and future conditions just to LIVE and to THRIVE.

My own personal adjustment is if WIFE is no longer capable of making children... OTHER WOMEN can be tapped to make more children.  We should find a way out of urban living and move out to provincial wide open spaces living to encourage more baby making.

If my sons will be growing up in a time when the FERTILITY RATE in the big city manila is to drop to 1 child per woman, then they will avoid government marriage at all costs... I am teaching them now to NOT get government marriage because there is no point in marrying a woman who will only give 1 child.  That 1 woman is not worth as their grandmother who gave birth to 8 children. 

Already my brother in law did not get legal paper marriage to make his 2 sons with his current live in partner... and he chose a woman who comes from a POORER social class and province where having 5 children per woman is the NORM... so you could say he subcontracted a POORER less educated woman (yet healthy and beautiful) to be able to make his children... he learned from a previous more sophisticated live in partner where he spent an entire year living in with in a swanky upscale condominium gave him zero children... money down the drain.

So I grew up wanting to SURVIVE the contraception holocaust hoax... I always dreamt of being a grand father and became a pro-life volunteer in 2003.  Atheist - Pro-Natal - Pro-life.  Choose to inherit this earth.  Let the others who want to be extinct be extinct.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2013, 12:08:05 pm by goodsamaritan »
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Offline Iguana

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #8 on: September 08, 2013, 03:26:14 pm »
Aura : ok.

GS : I find difficult to grasp how your own descendants would thrive while the other people would go to extinction.
Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2013, 05:25:08 pm »
Aura : ok.

GS : I find difficult to grasp how your own descendants would thrive while the other people would go to extinction.


Its just like choosing raw paleo diets vs western medical approved diets.  You know the outcome.
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Offline Iguana

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2013, 06:18:39 pm »
But why your descendants would necessarily adopt your ideas and your way of living?

Moreover, the health troubles caused by cooked food generally happen late in life, after the individuals had ample time to reproduce and care of their offspring.
« Last Edit: September 08, 2013, 06:29:57 pm by Iguana »
Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2013, 07:56:28 pm »
But why your descendants would necessarily adopt your ideas and your way of living?

Because I'm a hands on parent.
Because I do not abdicate my children's "education" to the government, schools or TV, population control propaganda.
And I'm friends with fellow pro-lifers and pro-natalists.
And if you bet on enough children, some of them may survive the coming contraceptive extinction planned out for them.
Because I teach them these pro-life, pro-natal lessons to them.
Because I'm the one responsible for their sex and health education.
Grandma and grandpa live with us and teach great sex education as well.

Why do my kids know music theory and play various instruments and play very well with the harp?  Because we chose a school that teaches music very well (waldorf education), and my wife gives our children personal lessons and tutors them personally, and the grand parents and aunts encourage them.

Just as parents here teach raw paleo diets and health theories to their own children.  My children know and have experienced raw paleo diet healing.  My first born is fully on paleo diet.  And he owes a lot of his healing to raw paleo diets.  Kids have seen me heal people hands on with various techniques... it rubs off on them.
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Offline Iguana

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2013, 09:18:15 pm »
 Ok, you seem to be an excellent father. Let's hope it will work up to the next generations...

But meanwhile, the population explosion won't gradually and serenely stop before reverting to a sustainable level. I know you believe the Earth has unlimited resources in easily accessible oil. Even if it were true, which is clearly not the case, other resources are drastically and rapidly dwindling — fish stocks and wildlife, for example. They won’t suffice to feed a population of several billions people.
 

Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2013, 09:59:37 pm »
No worries. The demographic winter is upon us.

The population controllers have been pretty much successful. 
If you believe in population explosion... then give the population controllers a pat on the back and congratulate them for a job well done.

Have you checked the diving fertility rates yourself?

Google fertility rate + country.

Each and every country except the African continent will reach or has reached below replacement or just replacement fertility rates.

I would like to invite all raw paleo diet forum people to examine the statistics themselves.

See the full video:

Demographic Winter


Synopsis
Demographic Winter: Decline of the Human Family

One of the most ominous events of modern history is quietly unfolding.  Social scientists and economists agree - we are headed toward a demographic winter which threatens to have catastrophic social and economic consequences.  The effects will be severe and long lasting and are already becoming manifest in much of Europe.

A groundbreaking film, Demographic Winter: Decline of the Human Family, reveals in chilling soberness how societies with diminished family influence are now grimly seen as being in social and economic jeopardy.

Demographic Winter draws upon experts from all around the world - demographers, economists, sociologists, psychologists, civic and religious leaders, parliamentarians and diplomats.  Together, they reveal the dangers facing society and the world's economies, dangers far more imminent than global warming and at least as severe.  These experts will discuss how:

The "population bomb" not only did not have the predicted consequences, but almost all of the developed countries of the world are now experiencing fertility rates far below replacement levels.  Birthrates have fallen so low that even immigration cannot replace declining populations, and this migration is sapping strength from developing countries, the fertility rates for many of which are now falling at a faster pace than did those of the developed countries.

The economies of the world will continue to contract as the "human capital" spoken of by Nobel Prize winning economist Gary Becker, diminishes.   The engines of commerce will be strained as the workers of today fail to replace themselves and are burdened by the responsibility to support an aging population.

Government programs will slow-bleed by the decrease in tax dollars received from an ever shrinking work force.  The skyrocketing ratio of the old retirees to the young workers will render current-day social security systems completely unable to support the aging population.

Our attempts to modernize through social engineering policies and programs have left children growing up in broken homes, with absentee parents and little exposure to extended family, disconnected from the generations, and these children are experiencing severe psychological, sociological and economic consequences.  The intact family's immeasurable role in the development and prosperity of human societies is crumbling. 

The influence of social and economic problems on ever shrinking, increasingly disconnected generations will compound and accelerate the deterioration.  Our children and our children's children will bear the economic and social burden of regenerating the "human capital" that accounts for 80% of wealth in the economy, and they will be ill-equipped to do so. 

Is there a "tipping point", after which the accelerating consequences will make recovery impossible without complete social and economic collapse?  Even the experts can't tell us how far we can go down this road, oblivious to the outcomes, until we reach a point where sliding into the void becomes unpreventable.

Only if the political incorrectness of talking about the natural family within policy circles is overcome will solutions begin to be found.  These solutions will necessarily result in policy changes, changes that will support and promote the natural, intact family. 

Just as it took the cumulative involvement of activist organizations, policy makers, the business world and the media to create the unintended consequences we are beginning to experience, so it will take the holistic contribution of all of these entities, together with civic and religious organizations, to change the hearts and minds of all of society to bring about a reversal. 

It may be too late to avoid some very severe consequences, but with effort we may be able to preclude calamity.  Demographic Winter lays out a forthright province of discussion.  The warning voices in this film need to be heard before a silent, portentous fall turns into a long, hard winter.

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Offline Iguana

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2013, 11:31:02 pm »
Each and every country except the African continent will reach or has reached below replacement or just replacement fertility rates.
I had a look at the Wikipedia page you linked. It only shows that the total fertility rate (TFR) is decreasing. But the World’s population still grows and the forecasts predict it will still continue to grow. By the way I didn’t know that we are already over the 7 billion mark…

Quote
   
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_world
The total fertility rate of the World is estimated as 2.52 children per woman, which is above the replacement fertility rate of approximately 2.1. However, world population growth is unevenly distributed, going from .91 in Macau, to 7.68 in Niger. The United Nations estimated an annual population increase of 1.14% for the year of 2000.[6]

There are approximately 3.38 billion females in the World. The number of males is about 3.41 billion. People under 14 years of age made up over a quarter of the world population (26.3%), and people age 65 and over made up less than one-tenth (7.9%) in 2011.[2]

The world population growth is approximately 1.09%
[2]

The world population more than tripled during the 20th century from about 1.65 billion in 1900 to 5.97 billion in 1999.[7][8][9][10]

It reached the 2 billion mark in 1927, the 3 billion mark in 1960, 4 billion in 1974, and 5 billion in 1987.[11] Currently, population growth is fastest among low wealth, third world countries.[12]

The UN projects a world population of 9.15 billion in 2050, which is a 32.69% increase from 2010 (6.89 billion).[7]


A paleo-like level would be... no more than 5 million ! (see graph below)
« Last Edit: September 08, 2013, 11:51:41 pm by Iguana »
Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

Offline cherimoya_kid

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #15 on: September 08, 2013, 11:55:42 pm »
the population has almost doubled in the last 30 years.  How can ANYONE say we don't have enough people?

Craziness.

Offline goodsamaritan

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #16 on: September 09, 2013, 08:21:53 am »
It is TIME to talk MATH and STATISTICS.

Raw Paleo Dieters are smart and will understand DEMOGRAPHIC basics.

Distilled Demographics: Deciphering Population Pyramids
Distilled Demographics: Deciphering Population Pyramids

Demographic Transition and Population Pyramids
Unit 2 - Demographic Transition and Population Pyramids

After you guys and gals have digested the 2 above videos, I will post the next education material.

It's just plain math.

We all need to exercise patience as the population statistics work themselves out over decades.

Demography is destiny.
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Offline cherimoya_kid

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #17 on: September 09, 2013, 08:25:39 am »
You're right. it IS just plain math.

The world population has doubled since I was born.  THAT'S math. ROFL

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #18 on: September 09, 2013, 08:27:50 am »
You're right. it IS just plain math.

The world population has doubled since I was born.  THAT'S math. ROFL

And did you not even take into account the depopulation success of the imperial policy of NSSM 200 written by Henry Kissinger?

I will discuss and show fertility rates later on.

I told you you needed patience.

Please view the videos.  You cannot possibly have seen nor digested the videos in that short amount of time to reply.

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #19 on: September 09, 2013, 11:21:13 am »
I think it's important to be able to reproduce and produce healthy offspring. Not only is it important for ensuring future generations can enjoy being alive and live free of suffering from degenerative diseases. But being able to produce healthy offspring typically means you're pretty healthy which makes life more enjoyable.

But I'm ok with birth control. Again I think it's essential to be able to produce healthy offspring and be very healthy. But I don't see why certain new birth control methods can't be a part of that. Fact is humans live in a way that's unsustainable, and the last thing we need is for the population to keep sky rocketing.
Disclaimer: I was told I was misdiagnosed over 10 years ago, and I haven't taken any medication in over a decade.

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2013, 09:04:28 pm »
The world population has doubled since I was born.  THAT'S math. ROFL
Ah, you young kid! It tripled during my life…  ;)

GS, I watched both videos. Interesting but we know it. We know that industrialized countries have an increasing problem of population aging and thus there won’t be enough working people to pay for the retirement of elders — or at least the great number of old people no longer able to work will be a huge burden on the shoulders of younger ones.

We also know that the total fertility rate is decreasing. But the population of planet Earth continues to increase and is expected to still increase at least until 2050 before stabilizing and perhaps even decrease. That is a projection extrapolated of the current situation, with plenty of cheap energy available from oil, and therefore an economic growth of “developing countries” comparable to what happened in the west. But it is extremely unlikely to happen this way.

Moreover, the current state of world’s population (more than 7 billion) is in no way sustainable, even more so with the dwindling of natural resources which is taken place at a very fast rate.   

Fact is humans live in a way that's unsustainable, and the last thing we need is for the population to keep sky rocketing.
Exactly!
   
« Last Edit: September 09, 2013, 09:12:26 pm by Iguana »
Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

Offline cherimoya_kid

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2013, 09:22:11 pm »
And did you not even take into account the depopulation success of the imperial policy of NSSM 200 written by Henry Kissinger?

I will discuss and show fertility rates later on.

I told you you needed patience.

Please view the videos.  You cannot possibly have seen nor digested the videos in that short amount of time to reply.




Are you familiar with the Renaissance in Europe, a time of scientific, cultural, and economic flowering?  Did you know that the lives of peasants were generally a lot better in the Renaissance than in the Middle Ages? Do you know the main reason that the Renaissance happened? 

The Black Plague, that's the main reason. Suddenly there went from being more than enough peasants to work the land, to not enough peasants. As a result, landowners had to treat peasants  better, including giving them more money.  Otherwise, the peasants would leave and go down the road to the next estate, which was paying better and treating peasants better.

Because peasants had more money, they could afford to become more educated.  As a result, the average level of education in Europe became much higher, and everyone in Europe benefited. There was less grinding poverty and general misery.

This is why people want to reduce the birth rate in 3rd-world countries. 

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #22 on: September 09, 2013, 09:24:44 pm »
Your videos did make a good point, though, Edwin.  I will say that things potentially look pretty bad for the developed countries 10-15 years from now, unless we can get robotic automation to perform enough of our work for us.  We just won't have enough people to perform all this work, unless we can automate it.  Importing foreign workers won't completely fill the gap, because they'd have to learn English and be acculturated, and then learn the specific job skills.

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #23 on: September 10, 2013, 12:01:39 am »
The Black Plague, that's the main reason. Suddenly there went from being more than enough peasants to work the land, to not enough peasants. As a result, landowners had to treat peasants  better, including giving them more money.  Otherwise, the peasants would leave and go down the road to the next estate, which was paying better and treating peasants better.

Because peasants had more money, they could afford to become more educated.  As a result, the average level of education in Europe became much higher, and everyone in Europe benefited. There was less grinding poverty and general misery.
It’s both interesting and logical. The denser the population is in a certain area, the worse are the living conditions — at least for people like us. I left my home town because it has become so crowded and congested that life there has very much deteriorated.

We are meant to live in small tribal groups of less than 150 people having an almost unlimited area to gather and hunt. “Sex at Dawn” http://sexatdawn.com/ pages 108-109:
Quote
Noticing the importance of grooming behavior in social primates, British anthropologist Robin Dunbar plotted overall group size against the neocortical development of the brain. Using this correlation, he predicted that humans start losing track of who’s doing what to whom when group size hits about 150 individuals. In Dunbar’s words, “The limit imposed by neocortical processing capacity is simply on the number of individuals with whom a stable inter-personal relationship can be maintained.”7 Other anthropologists had arrived at the same number by observing that when group sizes grew much beyond that, they tend to split into two smaller groups. Writing several years before Dunbar’s paper was published in 1992, Marvin Harris noted, “With 50 people per band or 150 per village, everybody knew everybody else intimately, so that the bonding of reciprocal exchange could hold people together. People gave with the expectation of taking and took with the expectation of giving.”8 Recent authors, including Malcolm Gladwell in his best-selling The Tipping Point, have popularized the idea of 150 being a limit to organically functioning groups.

Having evolved in small, intimate bands where everybody knows our name, human beings aren’t very good at dealing with the dubious freedoms conferred by anonymity. When communities grow beyond the point where every individual has at least a passing acquaintance with everyone else, our behavior changes, our choices shift, and our sense of the possible and of the acceptable grows ever more abstract.

The same argument can be made concerning the tragic misunderstanding of human nature that underlies communism: community ownership doesn’t work in large-scale societies where people operate in anonymity.

The last phrase is exactly what a told a leftist girlfriend 36 years ago. She was telling me:
“Communism works, we have experimented it between my husband and me !”
I laughed and replied:
“Of course, it can even work on a small Pacific island where everyone knows each other !”

« Last Edit: January 03, 2014, 05:29:20 pm by Iguana »
Cause and effect are distant in time and space in complex systems, while at the same time there’s a tendency to look for causes near the events sought to be explained. Time delays in feedback in systems result in the condition where the long-run response of a system to an action is often different from its short-run response. — Ronald J. Ziegler

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Re: TED talk on population growth
« Reply #24 on: October 06, 2013, 02:27:15 am »
TED talks is such a joke. I dont think iv ever heard anything out of them other than leftist elitist propaganda.

THe quote from this article sums up tedtalks quite nicely.
http://www.newstatesman.com/martin-robbins/2012/09/trouble-ted-talks

"Ultimately, the TED phenomenon only makes sense when you realise that it’s all about the audience. TED Talks are designed to make people feel good about themselves; to flatter them and make them feel clever and knowledgeable; to give them the impression that they’re part of an elite group making the world a better place. People join for much the same reason they join societies like Mensa: it gives them a chance to label themselves part of an intellectual elite. That intelligence is optional, and you need to be rich and well-connected to get into the conferences and the exclusive fringe parties and events that accompany them, simply adds to the irresistible allure. TED’s slogan shouldn’t be ‘Ideas worth spreading’, it should be: ‘Ego worth paying for’."

and do all you population controllers live in cities? They usually do as anyone who lives in the country knows that if they go out driving to the store or something theyll see miles and miles of nothing everywhere they go. People need to use their own brains. The fact is all of america can move into texas with 2 acres of land per person.

Every ted talk iv seen has just been pushing varying aspects of the new world order.

ANd who does anyone think they are to be controlling the population anyway. What makes them the deciders of who lives and dies? If there ever were too many people on the planet, people would die off until a balance was reached. No need to poison or sterilize anyone.

What a bunch of sick control freaks.
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